A Rare Window of Opportunity for Large Industrial Tenants in the Treasure Valley

Boise’s industrial market has flipped. For the first time in more than a decade, there’s more brand-new big-box space available than there are tenants to fill it. That shift has created a dynamic worth paying attention to if you’re running a large operation in the Treasure Valley.

If you’ve been in the same 50,000+ square foot warehouse for years, you’ve probably noticed the squeeze. Older buildings are full, rents have climbed, and retrofits only go so far. But right now the market is giving tenants a rare advantage.

Why This Window is Unique

In Ada and Canyon Counties, industrial vacancy has climbed to 8.3% overall, and nearly 24% in multi-tenant big-box space. Boise hasn’t seen vacancy this high since 2013. This increase follows the delivery of more than 2.2 million square feet of new Class A product in the first half of 2024. Developers are holding brand-new, empty buildings, and with vacancy at 8.3%, the balance of power has shifted back to tenants.

Leasing activity is still strong: more than 1 million square feet of net absorption occurred through Q3 2024, and deals were up 28% year-over-year. Canyon County led absorption with nearly 380,000 SF taken down by users in 2024, signaling that tenants are actively seizing these opportunities. But the reality is simple: tenants haven’t had this kind of leverage in more than a decade, and it won’t last once the wave of new supply is absorbed.

The construction pipeline has already started to cool. After nearly 4.5 million square feet was delivered in 2023, only about 2.6 million square feet was under construction by late 2024, and much of that was build-to-suit rather than pure spec. This slowdown means that today’s elevated vacancy is more of a temporary imbalance than a new normal. Once absorption catches up, landlords will tighten concessions, and the market will tilt back toward balance.

The Upside of Moving

Upgrading into Class A space isn’t about shiny new walls. It’s about function and efficiency:

• Ceiling heights: 30+ foot clear heights versus 18–22 feet in older stock means more vertical storage and fewer facilities needed.

• Power and safety: Heavy power capacity, ESFR sprinklers, and infrastructure designed for automation.

• Operational efficiency: Dock-high loading, wide bay spacing, and better truck flow that reduces bottlenecks and labor hours.

• Workforce impact: A modern, climate-controlled environment that supports retention and strengthens client perception.

These are operational advantages that directly affect productivity and cost.

The Brutal Reality of Moving

That said, we know moving is not painless. It can mean downtime in the millions, retraining staff, pulling new permits, installing equipment, and re-establishing processes. We understand that. Part of our job is to run the numbers honestly with clients. Sometimes the disruption outweighs the upside. Sometimes it doesn’t. The key is to quantify both sides, not gloss over the pain.

How Moving Impacts Your Bottom Line

At the end of the day, every real estate decision is a financial decision. The market conditions right now can directly affect your P&L in a few key ways:

• Lower Effective Rent: Even if asking rates hold steady, concessions like extended free rent and tenant improvement allowances can make brand-new Class A space cost the same (or less) than older B or C stock over the life of the lease.

• Operational Savings: Modern facilities with higher clear heights, better truck flow, and automation-ready power can reduce labor hours, cut energy bills, and increase throughput — every dollar of efficiency goes straight to your bottom line.

• Retention and Productivity: Climate-controlled, modern space helps you attract and keep skilled employees, lowering turnover costs and boosting productivity.

• Future-Proofing: Moving now while landlords are aggressive can lock in terms that shield you from higher rents and tighter concessions once vacancy levels normalize.

Recent Major Projects Shaping the Market

Part of what makes this window unique is the sheer size and quality of the projects that have hit the market in the last three years. A few examples:

• Red River Logistics Center (Boise) – 900,000+ SF speculative Class A warehouse (Idaho’s largest ever), delivered in 2023.

• Boulevard Logistics Park (Nampa) – Two buildings totaling 685,000+ SF, delivered in 2023.

• Park84 Industrial Park (Nampa) – Seven buildings totaling 600,000+ SF on 47 acres, completed mid-2024.

• Sky Ranch Logistics Center (Caldwell) – Nearly 400,000 SF, including Caldwell’s largest-ever warehouse, delivered in 2024.

• Madison Logistics Center (Nampa) – Three buildings totaling 345,000 SF, completed in 2023.

• Kings Road Commerce Center (Nampa) – Three-building, 360,000+ SF park delivered in 2022; includes an Amazon distribution facility and Hensel Phelps as tenants.

• Northside Logistics Center (Nampa) – 260,000 SF Class A distribution building, delivered in 2023.

Each of these projects came online largely on a speculative basis. That means they’re sitting ready for tenants, and owners are offering aggressive packages to fill them.

What TRA Brings to the Table

At Tenant Realty Advisors, we only represent tenants. We’re not splitting focus. We know the market data, we know the landlords, and we’ve negotiated seven-figure packages for clients willing to explore their options.

Right now, new buildings are sitting empty and owners are more flexible than they’ve been in years. Every company’s situation is different, and the right strategy depends on where you’re headed. If you’d like a clearer view of how the market is shifting and what it could mean for your space decisions in the future, let’s connect and start the conversation.